As a mountaineer and a Sherpa I can speak to how climate change is affecting members of my community. For Sherpas who have lived within the mountains in for centuries, mountain climbing has become a main means of economic security. For generations this sustained our communities, but now our dependence on tourism is creating a state of anxiety. Sherpas can no longer earn enough money to support our families by farming or selling potatoes, and climate change is threatening the core elements that make tourism possible.
Climate change has also greatly increased the risks associated with climbing, including more violent and frequent avalanches and rockfall as the mountain environment grows warmer. The layers of blue ice that literally hold the mountains together are melting rapidly, releasing rocks and other projectiles frequently. Seracs collapses are also more common, making previously safe routes life-threatening.
And then there are the glacial lakes. Across the Himalayas, glaciers are melting and increasing pressure on fragile moraine walls. When these lakes burst, there is potential for massive flash flooding that can result in extensive loss of life and infrastructure. We see this in the Khumbu valley with the Dikshu and Mozubma glaciers. The Khumbu glacier itself is holding an incredible amount of water, with dangerous releases every monoson season. We do not need to look much further than the flooding evident in Melamchi and in the Manang valley this year for evidence of how destructive this can be.
This year we also faced two major cyclones in one climbing season. This is unprecedented. I was on Everest when the first cyclone Tauktae hit, and then astonishingly the second, Yaas, came the following week.
Add to this landslides, drought and wildfires. As our climate continues to destabilize, the natural resources that once drew tourists to Nepal have turned deadly. These events are also erasing our cultural heritage – this year a 1,000-year-old monastery in Humla was swept away and erased forever.
So, what can we do about this? We need to constantly explore alternative trekking and climbing routes as the glaciers and high passes constantly change and shift. We can install ‘via ferrata’ type routes where trekking groups can travel safely on pre-established routes with fixed iron guides and ropes along stable rock faces. Rural Municipalities and trekking associations can install guides and re-map trekking routes across melting glaciers as is being done on many of the popular routes in the Khumbu valley.
Interestingly, infrastructure and roads are also crucial. But not the rough, unplanned roads that are usually swept away each monsoon. Nepal must invest in proper engineering and planning including retention walls, ditching, and proper drainage. Not only does this drive down the cost of basic goods and construction materials, but it also improves access to health care for the elderly and education for students.
Looking at the recent flooding disaster in Melamchi places a spotlight on the need for better disaster risk assessment. For a project that would bring drinking water to 6 million people, how could we possibly miss this catastrophe, despite so many years of research and work in the area?
And then we need to act. So many researchers and PhDs are capitalizing upon the suffering, or potential suffering, of our country while nothing happens on the ground. For so many years, the upper Khumbu valley has lived in fear of a glacial outburst flood from Imja Lake, but nothing was done. Only after many years the international development community along with the Nepal Army finally mobilized to release pressure and lower the water level. And this was only because of the popularity of this lake amongst international researchers, and its location in the Everest region. There are many other places that are at ten times the risk of Imja, but they do not get the same attention or the same solutions. It is time that we work with everyone from our Rural Municipality leaders to the UNDP to focus identifying areas of the greatest risk, and immediately implementing solutions. We can no longer just identify the risk, scare local communities, and sit on our hands to do nothing about it.
We know the weather is going to change more rapidly and more violently, but Nepal lacks the infrastructure to properly forecast these events. Currently, our most accurate forecasts come from computer modeling based on data from India and China. We need to establish accurate weather stations across the country that can help us identify extreme weather events. Not only will this help mountain climbers ascend and descend more safely, this will allow us to take measures to protect our hydropower infrastructure from flash flooding and for farmers to protect their crops and increase productivity. Accurate weather forecasting is also critical for the aviation industry which is fundamental for tourism growth. Many of our most deadly airline accidents – including a crash a few years ago in Lukla that took the lives of many tourists – can be traced back to poor weather forecasting.
We also need to look at how Nepal’s image plays out internationally, and how climate change will impact this. Right now, the branding value of Mt. Everest alone is almost impossible to accurately quantify. It’s likely worth billions of dollars in free publicity. But this publicity can also turn negative in an instant. As the climbing conditions get more challenging and dangerous due to climate change, the summit success rates will drop. The costs required to bring clients safely to the top will also increase, along with – tragically – deaths. This is unavoidable. We know that there will always be an attraction to mountaineering in the Himalayas, but the future does not look good. Every serac collapse, avalanche, plane crash, and major flooding event makes Nepal less appealing to tourists and more costly. We cannot predict what tourism here will look like in the next eighty years, or even in the next season. It is critical that we take direct measures now to mitigate these challenges through increasing our ability to understand how the mountains are changing (risk assessment, weather forecasting) and through implementing direct, tangible solutions on the ground.
